Abstract: The fact that the 2014-2016 MTEF projects that an increase of N17 trillion in nominal GDP between 2012 and 2016 will be accompanied by a decline in nominal Federal Government revenue and spending suggests that Nigeria’s fiscal policy has disconnected from economic reality. Urgent ste [Read more]

Uncertain Performance - Just how well is the Nigerian Economy performing? In the absence of a holistic report articulating the economic performance of Nigeria, no one could claim to know. There are only a lot of partial views on different aspects of the economy being expressed by different governmen [Read more]

Abstract - Two puzzles are becoming striking from recent communiqués of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). First, growth, employment, household and business expenditure issues have completely crept out of policy deliberations, as concerns about fiscal an [Read more]

Nigeria has long been trying to learn how best to manage boom-bust cycles in global commodity prices, adopting an oil-price benchmark for annual budgets while saving revenues above the benchmark in an excess crude account in the half decade before the 2008/2009 global crisis. The crisis and its afte [Read more]

Disparities in endowments of agricultural, mineral and commercial wealth across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones determine the rates at which the different regions can grow. Economic activities and growth are concentrated in four regions, while the remaining two regions are largely excluded fr [Read more]

This piece documents the facts of the supply-side recovery in Nigeria in the last few years and identifies the triggers. It then discusses the challenges the new turn of events pose to policy makers, who are only just responding to the previous downturn. Data that have become available since reforms [Read more]